The January 2023 general elections in Antigua and Barbuda set the stage for a rollercoaster of unanticipated political drama. The Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party (ABLP), led by Prime Minister Gaston Browne, barely clung to power, winning just nine of the 17 seats. For a party used to commanding a larger share, this slim victory spoke volumes about voter sentiment. The opposition United Progressive Party (UPP) was gaining ground, and Barbuda retained its independent voice through Trevor Walker’s Barbuda People’s Movement (BPM). So, what exactly has gone down since then?

Let’s start with the election results themselves. The ABLP’s reduced majority wasn’t just a wake-up call; it was an alarm blaring across the political spectrum. An alarm that sounded when the UPP, under Jamale Pringle’s leadership, clawed its way to six seats—a clear sign that people were looking for change.

Then there’s the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), which had become almost a footnote in this story, slipping further into irrelevance. But the real headline-grabber? Asot Michael. The former ABLP member turned independent candidate made history by winning the St. Peter constituency—the first time an independent candidate had ever done so in the country’s history.

At the start of 2023, opposition members were confident that they would gain additional seats in the coming months, leaning on the deteriorating health conditions of MPs Sir Robin Yearwood and Sir Molwyn Joseph, who had both retained their seats. And so, there would be two by-elections triggered but for reasons quite unexpected by either party.

Parliamentary changes

First came Kelvin “Shugy” Simon from the UPP. He resigned just months after winning his seat in St. Mary’s South, triggering a by-election. The reason? A legal challenge claiming he was ineligible because of his job as a public servant at the time of his nomination.

Despite the uproar, Simon came out on top in the by-election, leaving the labour party’s Dwayne George—a defector from the UPP—licking his wounds.

And then there was Anthony Smith. His decision to ditch the UPP in July 2024 shocked just about everyone. Citing “misaligned values,” Smith became an independent MP and, almost immediately, the ABLP’s new agriculture minister. Cue another round of legal battles, as constituents and UPP members questioned the constitutionality of his move. The courts eventually sided with Smith, but the fallout left the opposition reeling.

On December 5, 2024, High Court judge, Justice Jan Drysdale struck out the case, citing a lack of “specificity and clarity” in the claim which would make it difficult for both the court and the defendant to engage with the case effectively.This case is unlikely to be over.

The political theater took a dark and tragic turn in November 2024 with the murder of Asot Michael who was found with multiple stab wounds inside his home in Dry Hill. Michael’s passing has triggered yet another by-election since the 2023 general election – this time in St Peter. The by-election date was announced hours after Michael’s burial, leaving the opposition without a confirmed candidate.

After a few days, the UPP announced that George Wehner, their mobilization officer, would run in St Peter. The ABLP’s Rawdon Turner, a former senator, will face off against Wehner on January 14, 2025.

Trouble in the UPP Camp

If you thought the UPP’s woes ended there, think again. A string of high-profile resignations rocked the party, including big names like PRO Damani Tabor and former candidates Cleon Athill and Dr. Edmond Mansoor.

While all this went on, the UPP faced mass resignations including some of its stalwarts like their PRO Damani Tabor, for candidate Cleon Athill and Dr Edmond Mansoor, Winston Henry and Philmore Benjamin. Ivor Sean Bird, who ran against his cousin and the prime minister’s wife, Maria Browne, also resigned and crossed the floor to rejoin the labour party as a member.

Shawn Nicholas who had served as minority leader in the Senate also resigned but seemingly without contention. Pearl Quinn was appointed as opposition senator while David Massiah continued with his new role as minority leader.

Many felt that the fallouts were largely to blame on the results of the UPP’s internal leadership race which saw Jamale Pringle regain his leadership position in the party. Many both within and outside the party felt that his contender Richard Lewis would have been the better choice.

 Attorney and MP Bowen was chosen as the UPP’s deputy leader and for whatever it’s worth Lewis was offered an uncommon position of 2nd deputy leader.

The ABLP Tries to Rebuild

While the UPP was busy imploding, the ABLP was working on a facelift. Prime Minister Browne focused on injecting youth into the party’s ranks. Michael Joseph, now junior health minister, and Rawdon Turner were appointed senators along with Lamin Newton, a former UPP member. Senator Shenella Govia was appointed Leader of Government Business in the Senate after Samantha Marshal announced her resignation from the Senate.

And when 85-year-old Speaker of the House of Representatives, Sir Gerald Watt stepped down, the ABLP made way for Senator Osbert Frederick, signaling a push for fresh leadership.

Osbert Fredrick appointed Speaker of the House November 2024 Sir Gerald Watt steps down

What’s Next?

As we kick off 2025, the UPP is still trying to find its footing. They’ve yet to announce all their candidates for the next general election, and their internal fractures aren’t helping. Meanwhile, the ABLP is clinging to power, but public discontent looms large. Will Browne’s strategy of youth and renewal pay off? Or will the UPP manage to regroup in time to pose a serious challenge?

What’s clear is that the past two years have been anything but smooth sailing for Antigua and Barbuda’s political scene. With by-elections, resignations, and even murder shaping the narrative, the road to the next general election promises to be just as unpredictable.