Antigua and Barbuda is facing a near certainty of continued drought conditions for the remainder of 2026, with the latest rainfall forecast showing a 95% chance of below-normal rainfall this year.
The updated outlook from climatologist Dale Destin indicates only a 4% chance of near-normal rainfall and a 1% chance of above-normal rainfall, pointing to a significantly drier-than-usual year.
Destin’s forecast estimates total rainfall for 2026 at about 751 millimetres or 29.6 inches, with a 70% confidence range between 614 and 907 millimetres. That figure is well below the island’s average annual rainfall of about 1,157 millimetres, based on the 1991-2020 climate period.
The projection suggests Antigua and Barbuda could experience a rainfall deficit of approximately 35% this year.
Destin, who is also the Director of the Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Service said the country’s rainfall total has a 69% chance of ranking among the driest 10% of years recorded since 1928, with rainfall potentially falling within the bottom two per cent of the historical record.
The forecast comes as the island continues to experience the impacts of prolonged dry conditions, which have placed additional pressure on water resources and agricultural production.
Destin identified a strengthening El Niño event as the main factor influencing the below-normal rainfall outlook.
El Niño typically suppresses rainfall across the region by weakening weather systems that generate moisture and instability, creating conditions that favour drought development and persistence.
The first half of 2026 was already among the driest periods recorded.
Destin said rainfall between January and June totalled 250.7 millimetres, making it the driest dry season since 2021 and the 11th driest on record dating back nearly a century.
The dry season rainfall was about 39% below average, with a deficit of 158.2 millimetres compared with the typical January-to-June rainfall average of 410 millimetres.
The forecast for the July-to-December wet season also points to continued dryness.
Destin estimates wet-season rainfall at about 501 millimetres, compared with the seasonal average of nearly 747 millimetres. The projection represents a potential deficit of about 33%.
September to November normally accounts for the largest share of Antigua and Barbuda’s rainfall, contributing roughly 58% of wet-season rainfall and 38% of total annual rainfall.
However, Destin said there is virtually no chance that rainfall levels this year will exceed the annual average or surpass 1,218 millimetres.
The continued dry conditions are expected to maintain challenges for water management agencies, farmers and communities dependent on rainfall for supply.
