St. John’s, Antigua – A seasoned climatologist is warning that Antigua & Barbuda could face dangerously high heat conditions during the upcoming Carnival season, with the potential for increased heat-related illnesses and medical emergencies as El Niño intensifies across the region over the next three to six months.

Climatologist Orvin Paige cautioned that Carnival, which brings thousands onto the streets for prolonged outdoor celebrations, will coincide with unusually hot daytime and nighttime temperatures, reducing the body’s ability to recover from heat exposure.

The concern is compounded by factors such as physical exertion, alcohol consumption, and extended nighttime activity, which together could increase the risk of heat stress, heat stroke, and in extreme cases, fatalities.

“My concern is with the drought conditions that we’re experiencing, heat waves we’ve already seen, when we go into the heart of the carnival season, we could actually see lots of heat stress, heat strokes and God forbid, fatalities because of these hot conditions,” he told IPB.  

The scientists who monitor the El Niño phenomena are predicting a super El Niño this year. El Nino doesn’t affect all countries the same but for Antigua & Barbuda, El Niño years typically bring drought conditions.  

“Between September to December that’s when the severity of the El Niño will be felt. If we’re already having drought conditions, if we’ve already seen hotter than normal conditions, then these conditions will be exacerbated, the stronger the El Niño becomes.  And so, from where we sit right now, our model information is suggesting that for the latter part of this year, it will likely be far worse than currently.”

He also warned that the impact would not be limited to revellers alone, but could place additional pressure on health services, emergency responders, and public safety systems during one of the country’s largest cultural events. Paige pointed to a wide range of sectoral risks linked to the developing El Niño pattern. 

Hotter and drier conditions are expected to reduce soil moisture, stress crops and livestock, and lower yields raising concerns about food availability and prices. Plants, like humans, Paige noted, experience heat stress. Animals do as well and, in extreme conditions, can even die. But unlike humans and animals, plants cannot move to find relief.

Warmer ocean temperatures could accelerate coral bleaching, disrupt marine ecosystems, and force fish populations further offshore affecting fisherfolk livelihoods and coastal food security.

The warming Atlantic is also expected to intensify sargassum blooms, worsening beach accumulation, unpleasant odours, and tourism impacts along eastern coastlines.

During the hotter periods of the year, there is also a noticeable trend in tourism. During the summer months, when temperatures are extremely high and tourists are present, there is increased consumption of water resources.

For example, Paige said “You have more evaporation taking place from the swimming pools so there’s a greater demand on our already limited water resources to fuel  the hotel industry.”

Higher demand for water means the country’s dependence on reverse osmosis systems, which produces 90 per cent of potable water, could face increased strain, with higher energy costs, greater demand, and vulnerability if production facilities experience breakdowns during drought conditions.

The climatologist also noted a concerning link between extreme heat and increased irritability and domestic tension, as well as potential spikes in traffic accidents due to heat-related fatigue and impaired concentration.

“You’re already at your wit’s end with these hot conditions and so you snap. You become easily irritated. And guess what happens? You take that out on the people closest to you. You snap at your children,  you snap at your spouse, your significant other.”.

During heat waves, people are already exposed to high levels of heat throughout the day, and by the end of the day they may be fatigued and struggling to cope. This can significantly compromise a driver’s ability to concentrate on the road.

When alertness is reduced, drivers become impaired, and this increases the risk of accidents. That is why Paige warned that it is important to remain vigilant, stay well hydrated, and limit direct exposure to sunlight in order to maintain focus and safety behind the wheel.

While overall conditions are expected to be dry, Paige warned that when rain does fall, it may be intense, creating conditions for mosquito breeding and increasing the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue in the weeks that follow. This cycle also contributes to transmission of related diseases like worsening gastrointestinal illnesses because water scarcity, contamination, and sanitation breakdown increase exposure to enteric pathogens. 

The risk of death is also a very real possibility. As Paige noted, heat tends to “kickstart  problems.”

“Heat is not something you’re going to see on a death certificate. A person died from heart conditions. But heat is a trigger.  Excess heat is a trigger for persons with underlying health conditions, diabetes,  hypertension, cardiovascular disease, heart disease.”

Dry vegetation and prolonged heat could also increase the likelihood of bushfires and landfill fires, which have in the past affected the health of residents in surrounding areas.

This could exacerbate health problems that will further strain the country’s emergency services.

Below is a link to the full video interview with climatologist Orvin Paige of teEl Nino’s Impactsh Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service.