Residents across the Caribbean are being urged to prepare early for what could be an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, as climatologist Dale Destin warns of a higher-than-usual number of storms on the horizon.
According to the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast issued by local climatologist Dale Destin through 268Weather, this year’s activity could rival some of the most intense seasons on record. The outlook, which covers May through November, predicts an “above normal” season with the potential to become “well above normal or super hyperactive.”
Destin’s forecast anticipates:
- 20 named storms (compared to the average of 14),
- 10 hurricanes (average: 7),
- 5 major hurricanes (average: 3),
And not only are we expecting more storms, but those storms are also expected to be stronger and/or last longer than usual.
There’s even a 52% chance the season will be super hyperactive, with an ACE above 223 — a level only reached by the top 10% of hurricane seasons between 1991 and 2020.
Using the ACE index — which measures the strength and duration of storms — the probability of an above-normal season is 82%, while there’s only a 14% chance of a near-normal season and a 4% chance of a below-normal one.
Other significant projections include:
- 55% chance of more than 19 named storms,
- 43% chance of more than 11 hurricanes,
- 42% chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.
The main contributor to this active outlook is the expected presence of warm-neutral sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic. Warmer waters typically serve as fuel for tropical cyclones, helping them to form faster and intensify more rapidly.
However, some uncertainties remain:
- Sea temperatures may hover closer to normal than initially expected,
- ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast to prevail — meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña will dominate the pattern, and
- The “spring predictability barrier” makes this time of year especially difficult for accurate forecasting.
Despite these unknowns, the forecast leans heavily toward a busy peak season, particularly from August through October.
Destin is encouraging Caribbean residents to take the outlook seriously, especially in island nations like Antigua and Barbuda where even a single storm can have catastrophic consequences.
“The message is clear: Don’t wait for the first system to form. Start preparing now,” he urged.
Monthly updates to the forecast will be issued around the 15th of each month through August, with the first update expected around May 15. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30, although early-season storms have become more frequent in recent years.
